Predicting winners is tough. Do you pick your favorite or do you try to get inside the many minds of the Academy voters? I tend to try and do both. Looking at how a film is trending in other awards ceremonies and then going by my personal favorites.
So here we go, my picks for (nearly) every category of the Academy Awards:
BEST PICTURE
Nominees:
Who will win:
I’m afraid that Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is going to win. Why? I have no idea. I’m hoping that Get Out comes through with a win. I’d be happy with Lady Bird or The Shape of Water because I honestly love all three of those films. Three Billboards was incredibly well-acted so I can easily see and support wins in those categories, it didn’t connect with me because it felt disconnected from beginning to end. It starts off as a dark comedy but turns away from it and just becomes dark. The heart of the film, as it is with most, is in its characters and how they change from the beginning of the film to the end. They’ve been on a journey and their journey isn’t over when the credits roll.
BEST DIRECTING
Nominees:
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Torro, The Shape of Water
Who will win:
I like four nominees in this category to win. Dunkirk was a very ambitious film for Christopher Nolan but not his best. Jordan Peele knocked it out of the park with Get Out as did Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird. I didn’t dig Paul Thomas Anderson’s Phantom Thread. That leaves Guillermo del Torro’s The Shape of Water as the winner. This adult fairy tale/romantic take on a monster movie hits home for me for its story, strong characters, and rich visual texture.
BEST ACTOR
Nominees:
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Who will win:
I’m underwhelmed by this category. That’s nothing against the nominees or their films. I didn’t like Phantom Thread so it’s hard for me to get behind Daniel Day-Lewis. I was a little wierded out by the plot of Call Me By Your Name. I felt like Denzel got nominated because he’s Denzel. I loved Daniel Kaluuya in Get Out but I’m not sure it’s an Oscar winning performance. Gary Oldman will win for his portrayal of Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour. I’m fine with that. Robert Pattinson should have been nominated for Good Time.
BEST ACTRESS
Nominees:
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post
Who will win:
I loved every performance by these wonderful women. My favorite is a toss up between Saoirse Ronan and Sally Hawkins but Frances McDormand will probably win for portraying the grieving yet angry Mildred Hayes who goes into a PR war with the local police department over the investigation into her daughters murder. She’s a rough character who changes over the course of the film but what I love the most is how she delivers curse words. There’s a lot of cursing in this movie but none of them are wasted and McDormand delivers each one with the perfect emphasis.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees:
Willem DaFoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All The Money in The World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who will win:
Christopher Plummer and Woody Harrelson were great in their respective films but I see them as long shots in the category. Richard Jenkins played a character that was so open emotionally, you really feel for empathize with him. His was a beautiful soul that wanted human companionship and to feel needed more than anything. Willem Dafoe was just fantastic as the manager of a hotel dealing with mischievous children in The Florida Project. Sam Rockwell is my pick for this category. He’s the best character actor in Hollywood and although it’s not his role as the redneck Officer Dixon in Three Billboards isn’t his best, it’s certainly among them.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees:
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Allison Janey, I, Tonya
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Who will win:
To me, there are two front runners in this category, Allison Janey and Laurie Metcalf. Either one could win but I loved Laurie Metcalf in Lady Bird. As a parent of teenagers, I saw parts of myself in her character. Also, I’ve been watching a lot of Roseanne reruns lately.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Nominees:
Who will win:
I don’t understand how some of these films are nominated. The Boss Baby was really generic and I haven’t heard anyone say anything about Ferdinand. In case you’re wondering, it was released the same weekend as Star Wars: The Last Jedi which is probably why no one saw it. Coco will win this category.
Here are my picks for the other categories:
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
Nominees:
Call Me By Your Name, James Ivory
The Disaster Artist, Scott Neusadter and Michael H. Weber
Logan, Scott Frank, James Mangold, and Michael Green; Story by James Mangold
Molly’s Game, Aaron Sorkin
Mudbound, Virgil Williams and Dee Rees
Winner:
The Disaster Artist
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
Nominees:
The Big Sick, Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani
Get Out, Jordan Peele
Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig
The Shape of Water, Guillermo del Torro and Vanessa Taylor, Story by Guillermo del Torro
Three Billboards Ouotside Ebbing, Missouri, Martin McDonagh
Winner:
Get Out
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Nominees:
Blade Runner 2049, Roger A. Deakins
Mudbound, Rachel Morrison
Darkest Hour, Bruno Delbonnel
Dunkirk, Hoyte van Hoytema
The Shape of Water, Dan Laustsen
Winner:
Roger A. Deakins (Blade Runner 2049) will win and if he doesn’t it’s a shame. He’s the best in the business.
COSTUME DESIGN
Nominees:
Beauty and the Beast, Jacqueline Durran
Darkest Hour, Jacqueline Durran
Phantom Thread, Mark Bridges
The Shape of Water, Luis Sequira
Victoria & Abdul, Consolata Boyle
Winner:
Mark Bridges, Phantom Thread
FILM EDITING
Nominees:
Baby Driver, Paul Machliss and Jonathan Amos
Dunkirk, Lee Smith
I, Tonya, Tatiana S. Riegel
The Shape of Water, Sidney Wolinsky
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Jon Gregory
Winner:
Baby Driver
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
A Fantastic Woman, Chile
The Insult, Lebanon
Loveless, Russia
On Body and Soul, Hungary
The Square, Sweden
Winner:
A Fantastic Woman
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Nominees:
Darkest Hour, Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski, and Lucy Sibbick
Victoria & Abdul, Daniel Phillips and Lou Sheppard
Wonder, Arjen Tuiten
Winner:
Darkest Hour
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
Nominees:
Dunkirk, Hans Zimmer
Phantom Thread, Jonny Greenwood
The Shape of Water, Alexandre Desplat
Star Wars: The Last Jedi, John Williams
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Carter Burwell
Winner:
Star Wars: The Last Jedi, John Williams
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
“Mighty River” from Mudbound
“Mystery of Love” from Call Me By Your Name
“Remember Me” from Coco
“Stand Up For Something” from Marshall
“This is Me” from The Greatest Showman
Winner:
"Remember Me" from Coco
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Nominees:
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Winner:
Blade Runner 2049
SOUND EDITING
Nominees:
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Winner:
Baby Driver
SOUND MIXING
Nominees:
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Winner:
Baby Driver
VISUAL EFFECTS
Nominees:
Blade Runner 2049
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Winner:
Blade Runner 2049