The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), an institute creating projections of the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak, is estimating how many deaths caused by the virus there will be in Arkansas before it is considered no longer viral.
The projections are broken down by state and include estimated hospital and ICU beds needed, deaths per day and total deaths.
According to the institute's estimates for Arkansas, the state will hit its peak of deaths per day from April 21 to May 1. It is projecting the most deaths the state will see in a span of 24 hours is a total of 7.
The calculations also show a total of 230 Arkansans dying from the disease before it is controlled. The final death in the state, the projection estimates, would be at the beginning of June.
On the other hand, IMHE does say Arkansas hospitals will have enough beds and ICU space for the additional demand brought on by the coronavirus.
The institute's projections first entered headlines when Dr. Deborah Birx used them to say 100,000 to 240,000 deaths in the U.S. are possible if social distancing guidelines are maintained.
The peak date for hospital demand in Arkansas will be April 25, according to IHME.
Something to keep in mind, however, is that these projections are based on "the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic."
Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson has not implemented a statewide stay-at-home order at this time or ordered the closure of non-essential businesses across the state.
He has recommended several social distancing guidelines such as not allowing gatherings of 10 or more people, ordering restaurants to offer to-go and delivery only, and enhanced regulations on state park visitations.
Key facts to know:
- 1,000 confirmed positive cases of COVID-19 in Arkansas
- 14,530 total tests
- 13,530 negative test results
- 18 reported deaths
- 201 recoveries
- All public schools are closed for the year
Governor Hutchinson's April 5 press conference:
This article has been updated to include the latest projections.